A very interesting post popped up on X about Chicago Cubs pitcher Ben Brown and I thought I would dig deep on the topic: Should Ben Brown be moved to the bullpen?

What are yall thoughts on putting Ben Brown in the bullpen?

(If we trade for a SP or when Shota comes back) pic.twitter.com/RaynXn5Ok8

— SleeperCubs (@SleeperCubs) May 20, 2025

Hang on for a surprise that no one saw coming.

First off… we have to acknowledge he only has roughly 19 inning of relief as compared to roughly 80 as a starting pitcher, so the data is small all around. That said, at a SURFACE GLANCE:

His strengths as a Starter vs Relief: Lower ERA, WHIP, and BB/9, along with a higher K/BB.

Strengths as a Reliever vs Starter: Higher K/9 and lower HR/9, combined with a better FIP

But when you dig below, you get…. Major First-Inning Dominance…

Brown is exceptionally strong in the first inning, posting a 0.00 ERA and a 0.50 WHIP across his starts. His effectiveness drops the second he leaves the first, and progressively turns into a clown show.

As a starter, here is his ERA by inning.

Inning 1st – 0.00

2nd – 5.56

3rd – 5.56

4th – 4.50

5th – 5.40

6th – 7.04

He also has a skill…. A rare reverse split…. for a pitcher.

As a right-handed pitcher, Brown performs better against left-handed batters, allowing a .220 batting average and striking out 10.5 batters per 9 innings, compared to a .280 average and 9.8 K/9 against right-handed hitters.

Additionally, Brown excels in high-pressure situations, limiting hitters to a .180 batting average and achieving a 35% strikeout rate with runners in scoring position. But… A low-leverage long-relief role (e.g., mop-up duty in blowout games) underutilizes his clutch performance, placing him in situations where his ability to generate strikeouts under pressure is less impactful.

But Stamina Is An Issue….

Brown’s performance as a starter declines significantly after the third inning (5.40 ERA in innings 4-6). A long-relief role requiring multiple innings would expose this weakness, prolonged exposure to hitters increases his vulnerability to hard contact and home runs. The Relief Role (limited data) magnifies his issues… In relief appearances, Brown’s walk rate spikes to 3.79 BB/9 compared to 2.94 BB/9 as a starter. A long-relief role, where he faces multiple batters without the structured preparation of a starter, could amplify control issues, leading to more baserunners (evidenced by his 1.526 WHIP in relief).

Additionally, his limited pitch arsenal hurts him. His reliance on a fastball-slider combo (95-97 mph fastball, 85-87 mph slider) is effective in short bursts but becomes predictable over multiple innings. In a long-relief role, hitters would have more opportunities to adjust to his two-pitch mix, especially given his low changeup usage (1-7%), increasing the likelihood of hard contact.

So…. where is this leading?

First – what is the ABSOLUTE WORST ROLE FOR BEN BROW? The absolute worst role for Ben Brown would be as a traditional starting pitcher expected to pitch six or more innings per start. This role forces him into prolonged outings where his stamina falters, his pitch mix becomes predictable, and his weaknesses lead to poor outcomes, underutilizing his ability to dominate in short, high-impact appearances.

Now I know… I can year you….But…. his relief data looks a litterbox after a cat had diarrhea? Control Issues, Inconsistency, higher K/9, higher BB/9, higher WHIP…. And you are right BUT if you remove his horrifically bad relief appearance (which was his very first mlb game) – March 30, 2024, where he allowed 6 earned runs in 1.2 innings – the story becomes completely different.

Excluding the March 30, 2024 outing, Ben Brown’s relief performance is outstanding: a 2.08 ERA, 12.98 K/9, and 1.35 FIP across 7 appearances. No home runs allowed and a positive WPA of 0.28, he proves to be a reliable, stable and impactful bullpen arm.

Ok, we get it – he has skill but can’t pull it together.  What are you saying?

Well, the data today shows that the ULTIMTE role for Ben Brown, if you really wanted to take advantage of him and play to his skill: Short Starter or Opener This position capitalizes on his early-game dominance (0.00 ERA in the first inning, 2.08 ERA in relief), leverages his ability to handle 2-3 innings, and avoids the sharp decline seen in later innings (5.56 ERA in innings 2-3, 5.43 ERA in innings 4-6). It also offers team flexibility and manageable workload, making it the best fit for both his skills and the team’s needs.

A close second to the ultimate role: Multi-Inning Reliever.

A multi-inning reliever role allows deployment in varied situations—such as against the heart of the order in the middle innings—where his strikeout ability and clutch performance can shine. Additionally, as a reliever, he provides the element of surprise, as hitters haven’t faced him earlier, and he can pitch more frequently based on need, enhancing team flexibility.

The elite strikeout ability, proven effectiveness over 2-4 innings in relief, consistent performance in that role, and versatility make him well-suited as a multi-inning reliever. This allows the team to minimize his late-inning struggles as a starter, leverages his strengths in high-leverage situations, and aligns with his stamina with innings pitched.

And there you have it.